Posts Tagged ‘college football’

Belk Bowl – Mississippi State Bulldogs (-5) versus North Carolina State Wolf Pack

Posted: January 11, 2016 in College football, Football
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This is the sixth all-time meeting with the last two being in the 1963 Liberty Bowl (MSU won 16-12) and the 1994 Peach Bowl (NCST won 28-24, +6). This bowl has been called the Queen City, Continental Tire, and the Car Care Bowl. North Carolina State played here twice, beating South Florida, 14-0 (-3.5) in 2005 and Louisville, 31-24 (-2) in 2011. They won the St Petersburg Bowl, 34-27 (+2.5) versus Central Florida last year, making head coach Dave Doeren 2-0 SU/ATS in bowls. This is Mississippi State’s sixth straight bowl under head coach Dan Mullen (3-2 SU/2-3 ATS) and lost to Georgia Tech in last years Orange Bowl, 49-34 (-6).

It was going to be tough to match last year’s 10 win season as Mississippi State returned just seven starters, but that did include dynamic quarterback Dak Prescott. They won their opener, then lost by just two against LSU. The Bulldogs then won six of seven with their lone loss at Texas A&M and were ranked a season high No. 20 into their showdown with Alabama. They had a 20-13 first down edge, but lost by 25, then upset Arkansas, but then lost the Egg bowl. Prescott threw for 300+ yards six times, including 508 against Arkansas and leads the team in rushing. They are No. 21 in the FBS, averaging 75 yards per game more then their opponents allow on average. Their defense did lose lockdown cornerback Will Redmond and another defensive back starter late in the year.

Wolf Pack head coach Doeren had his best team since taking over in Raleigh as North Carolina State returned 15 starters from an 8-5 team, including quarterback Jacoby Brissett. They went 4-0 in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but struggled in conference play as not once did they string together back-to-back ACC wins. With the exception of their loss against Louisville, they won every game they were favored in and lost every game they were a ‘dog in. Running back Matthew Dayes was having a great season and was off a 200 yard effort when he injured his foot versus Clemson and was lost for the year. North Carolina State has a solid pass defense, but are average against the run.

Against eight bowl teams, Mississippi State was plus 1.6 yards per game, but North Carolina State was minus 124.2 yards per game against five bowl teams. Look for Prescott to rebound from his poor effort in his final home game as he is too good of a quarterback to struggle at the end of his career. The Wolf Pack will be more excited to play in this bowl game as the Bulldogs had higher aspirations, but due to their lackluster effort in last years bowl and coming off a loss against their rival, Mississippi State will have plenty of motivation.

Texas Bowl – LSU Tigers (-7) versus Texas Tech Red Raiders

Posted: January 10, 2016 in College football, Football
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These schools have had two previous meetings, with both coming in the 1950’s. This bowl game was initially known as the Texas Bowl from 2006-2010, but changed to the Car Care Bowl before being re-named this year. Texas Tech used a late comeback to beat Minnesota 34-31 (-13) in the Car Care Bowl in 2012 and this is their 17th bowl game in the last 20 years. They’re 10-6 SU/6-10 ATS and head coach Cliff Kingsbury won his only bowl, 37-23 (+14) vs Arizona State in the 2013 Holiday Bowl, the Red Raiders last post season appearance. LSU is making their first appearance here, but this is their 16th straight bowl gm. They’re 6-4 SU/5-5 ATS in bowls under head coach Les Miles and he was 1-2 SU/0-2-1 ATS in bowls while the head coach at Oklahoma State. 

LSU entered this season as a National Title contender and while they fell short, they still won at least eight games for the 16th straight season. Their opener was cancelled due to weather and they were 7-0, but lost their huge showdown with Alabama. Despite poor quarterback play, running back Leonard Fournette was the Heisman frontrunner mid-season. Fournette was shut down against the Tide and the Tigers then lost to Arkansas and Ole Miss and it appeared Miles was going to be let go. They beat Texas A&M in the finale. LSU was held under 100 passing yards four times, but on defense they are No. 16 in the FBS, holding their opponents to 80 yards per game below their season average.

Texas Tech could really only improve after winning just four games last year and returned 17 starters, including their top playmakers on offense. They started 3-0, including an outright upset win at Arkansas (+10.5). In Big 12 play, they won all their games as a favorite and lost all their games as a ‘dog except in the finale, whey they upset Texas. Despite a new defensive coordinator in David Gibbs, they still struggled as they are No. 120 in the FBS, allowing 90 yards per game more then their opponents average on the season. Their offense bailed them out many times as they enter No. 1 in the FBS, averaging 182 yards per game more then their opponents allow on average. Stopping Fournette could be a tall task as they have one of the weakest rush defenses in the nation. 

LSU is much more talented at just about every position with the exception of quarterback. Texas Tech needed to become more balanced offensively and have done that, rushing 438 times this year as opposed to 329 last years. LSU has the much better defense and Fournette should have a field day as the Red Raiders allow 5.9 yards per carry. While Texas Tech is known for their passing attack, LSU has a great secondary and despite the fact that this game is in Texas, LSU is actually 250 miles closer Houston and should have the crowd edge.

 

Russell Athletic Bowl – Baylor Bears (-3) versus North Carolina Tar Heels

Posted: January 10, 2016 in College football, Football
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This is the first all-time meeting between these schools. The Russell Athletic Bowl has gone by many names in the past (Blockbuster, CarQuest, MicronPC, Tangerine, Champs Sports). North Carolina beat Arkansas in the 1995 CarQuest Bowl here 20-10 (-2) and this is their seventh bowl game in the last eight years, including their third straight. Under head coach Larry Fedora, the Tar Heels are 1-1 SU/ATS and he was 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS in bowls as the head coach at Southern Miss. This will be Baylor’s sixth straight postseason appearance and they’re 2-3 SU/ATS. Head coach Art Briles was also 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in bowls while the head coach at Houston. 

Baylor entered the season a legit contender for a National title as they returned 18 starters. Quarterback Seth Russell took over with out a hitch and won his first seven starts by 36 points per game, albeit against a soft schedule. Russell was then injured and out for the year (neck) and true freshman Jarrett Stidham took over, but the schedule got tougher. The Bears improved to 8-0, but then lost to Oklahoma. Stidham was then injured and lost of the year (ankle) vs Oklahoma State and they lost their final two, failing to throw for over 100 yards in each game! They lost third string quarterback Chris Johnson to injury against Texas and had to use wide receiver Lynx Hawthorne under center. Baylor did average 325 (4.6) rushing yards per game over their last three contests.

North Carolina was the surprise team in the ACC. Despite 17 returning starters, including 10 on offense, which included quarterback Marquise Williams, there were plenty of questions about the defense. Fortunately, their offense had so much firepower, they were able to win the Coastal Division despite being No. 102 in the FBS, allowing 43 yards per game more then their opponents averaged on the season. The Tar Heels lost their opener to South Carolina, then won 11 straight and were within striking distance of Clemson in the ACC Championship game, but had a bogus offside penalty on an onside kick. They are No. 9 in the FBS, averaging 126 yards per game more then their opponents allow on average. Williams has had another fine season and running back Elijah Hood took over as the featured running back and has seven games with 100+ rushing yards this season.

Baylor is going to enter this game with plenty of motivation after not being able to hold onto a big lead in their bowl game last year and entering this game having lost three of four. Briles is a terrific offensive coach and should have the quarterback position in a much better state. The defenses for both teams are similar stat wise, but Baylor has held their opponents to 56 yards per game below their season average, while North Carolina is allowing their opponents to gain 43 more yards then their season average. Against bowl teams, the Bears were plus 92.5 yards per game, while the Tar Heels were just plus 19.5 yards per game.

 

Armed Forces Bowl – Air Force Falcons (+7) versus California Golden Bears

Posted: January 4, 2016 in College football, Football
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This is the ninth meeting between these schools with Cal winning six. The last meeting was in this very bowl, which Cal won 42-36 (-4) in 2007. Cal is bowling for the first time in four years. Head coach Sonny Dykes was 0-1 SU/1-0 ATS in his lone bowl while at Louisiana Tech. This is Air Force’s fifth appearance in this bowl and eighth overall in the last nine years. They’re 1-3 SU/ATS here and 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in the other, all under head coach Troy Calhoun.

It was going to be tough for Air Force to match last year’s ten win total as they returned just 11 starters and had to break in a new quarterback. Starting quarterback Nate Romine was injured and out for the year (ACL) after two games and then lost three of their next four games. They then won five straight, including back-to-back outright upsets vs Utah State and at Boise. Having the Mountain Division wrapped up, the Falcons lost an opportunity to host the Mountain West Conference championship game when they lost at New Mexico despite being a double-digit favorite. Air Force then lost at San Diego State in the conference title game. They average 453 yards per game, including 322 (5.5) rushing yards per game and are No. 22 in the FBS as they average 72 yards per game more then their foes allow on average. The Falcons do have a below average pass defense, which doesn’t bode well against a quarterback that will likely be starting in the NFL next season. 

Cal was one play away from getting to a bowl last year and entered this year with 17 returning starters. After starting the season 5-0, the schedule turned brutal and they lost four straight against Utah, UCLA, USC, and Oregon. They beat Oregon State to become bowl eligible, but then lost to rival Stanford and then won their finale. Quarterback Jared Goff was named first team Pac-12 and threw for over 300 yards nine times, including twice over 400 with a season high 542 yards and five touchdowns in the finale. The Golden Bears average 524 yards per game and are No. 10 in the FBS averaging 117 yards per game more then their foes allow on average. Defense is a struggle as they are #103 in the FBS allowing 45 yards per game more then their foes average, with their rush defense a main cause. 

This should be a high scoring game as matchups featuring pass happy offenses and triple option offenses usually end that way. Goff should be able to add a few more highlights to his reel and could add another 400 yard passing effort. Air Force scored 35 points versus Utah State and 38 against Boise and both those teams have better defenses then Cal.

 

Military Bowl – Pittsburgh Panthers (+4) versus Navy Midshipmen

Posted: January 4, 2016 in College football, Football
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This is the 40th all-time meeting between these schools, with the last coming in 2013 when Navy won 24-21 (+5). The Middies are 3-8-1 SU, but 7-5 ATS since 1979. This bowl was previously named the Eagle Bank Bowl and Navy played in the inaugural edition in 2008, losing to Wake Forest, 29-19 (+3). This is their fourth straight bowl appearance and head coach Ken Niumatalolo is 3-4 SU/4-3 ATS in bowls. Pitt is bowling for the eighth straight year (first here). They’ve gone 3-4 SU/ATS in that span and this is head coach Pat Narduzzi’s first bowl game.

Despite a new head coach, Pitt had plenty of talent and returned 15 starters, including all their top playmakers on offense. The main concern was the defense, but with Narduzzi being excellent on that side of the ball, the Panthers held four of their foes to either their lowest or second lowest yards mark and are No. 21 in the FBS, holding their opponents to 69 yards per game less then their average. Things were bleak early as second team All-American running back James Conner was out for the year (knee) in the opener, but redshirt freshman Qadree Ollison filled the void with 207 yards in the opener and had three additional games of 100+ rushing yards. Tennessee transfer quarterback Nate Peterman beat out Chad Voytik early. The best player on offense is clearly wide receiver Tyler Boyd, who’s numbers are down because of constant double and triple teams. They started the season 6-1, but ended 2-3 as the schedule toughened up.

Navy was an Independent for 124 years and had a chance to play for the American Athletic Conference Title in their first season as a conference member. Despite only returning 10 starters, they had quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who set the career rushing touchdown record. The Middies lone loss entering the conference season finale was at Notre Dame, but with a trip to the conference championship on the line, they were outclassed by Houston.

Navy enters with two losses, but those were to teams that have a combined three losses, while Pitt’s losses all came to bowl teams in Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Iowa. When Pitt played another triple option team in Georgia Tech earlier this season, they gave up 376 rushing yards, but still won and got experience against that type of system and now have three weeks to prepare for this game. Navy should come in sharper as they played Army just over two weeks ago and with this game being in Annapolis, it’s Reynolds final home game.

Independence Bowl – Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+13.5) versus Virginia Tech Hokies

Posted: December 31, 2015 in College football, Football
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Independence_Bowl_MatchupHELMET_LOGOSThe last time these schools met was in 1978. Tulsa leads the series 3-1 SU. This is Virginia Tech’s third appearance in this bowl as they lost to Air Force in 1984 and beat Indiana in 1993. Head coach Frank Beamer has been in a bowl the last 23 years, going 10-12 SU/10-11-1 ATS and won the Military Bowl 33-17 (+2.5) over Cincinnati last year. Tulsa is back bowling after a two year absence and have also played in this bowl twice, losing to McNeese State in the Inaugural Independence Bowl in 1976 and falling to Oreg in 1989.

Head coach Philip Montgomery, the former Baylor offensive coordinator, took over a 2-10 team and got them to a bowl in his first season. They did return 16 starters, including 10 on offense and quarterback Dane Evans fit perfectly into the new offense as he has passed for over 400 yards in three games! Tulsa never won more then 2 straight games, but also never had a three game losing streak. They won every game they were a favorite in, and lost every game they were a ‘dog in, except for their upset at New Mexico week two. The Golden Hurricanes average 503 yards per game and are No. 16 in the FBS averaging 97 yards per game then their foes allow on average. The 603 yards they put up on Oklahoma was the most the Sooners allowed all season!

Virginia Tech had extremely high expectations entering the season as they returned 16 starters, including quarterback Michael Brewer and had a manageable ACC schedule. Unfortunately, Brewer broke his collarbone in the opener versus Ohio State and didn’t fully return until the Duke loss, which made them 3-5. Following a win at Boston College, Beamer announced he would retire after the season and they won two of their last three with an overtime loss to North Carolina, then beat rival Virginia for the Commonwealth Cup that made them bowl eligible. Like Tulsa, the Hokies also never won or lost more then two straight and held four foes to either their lowest or second lowest yardage total and they have a solid passing defense.

With this game taking place at Independence Stadium, Tulsa is closer and might ordinarily have the crowd edge, but with this being Beamer’s final game, there should be plenty of Hokie backers in the crowd. Tulsa does have the better offense, but Virginia Tech has a much larger edge on defense. Both teams struggled against bowl teams as Tulsa was minus 91 yards per game and Virginia Tech was minus 69 yards per game.

Heart of Dallas Bowl – Washington Huskies (-8.5) versus Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Posted: December 31, 2015 in College football, Football
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Not only is this the first appearance in the Heart of Dallas bowl for each school, but this is also the first all-time meeting. This is Southern Miss’ first bowl since 2011 and they’re 8-6 SU/7-6-1 ATS in their last 14 bowl games. Head coach Todd Monken is coaching is first bowl game. Washington is bowling for the sixth straight season and lost to Oklahoma State, 30-22 (-6) in last years Cactus Bowl in head coach Chris Petersen’s first year at the helm with the Huskies. Prior to joining Washington, Peterson was 5-2 SU/ATS in bowls at Boise State.

It looked to be a rebuilding year for Washington, as they lost a lot of talent to the NFL and returned just nine starters. True freshman quarterback Jake Browning has had a fine season, along with another true freshman in running back Myles Gaskin (enters with three straight 100+ yard games). With youth comes inconsistency and that is what Washington has displayed, but they have an elite defense as they held four of their foes to either their lowest or second lowest yards total and are No. 10 in the FBS holding their foes to 99 yards per game below their season average. The offense turned the corner late as they are averaging 491 yards per game, including 218 (4.4) rushing yards per game their last three games.

For years you could count on Southern Miss being bowl eligible as they had gone 19 straight years without a losing season before 2012! In his third year, head coach Monken has done a great job and the Golden Eagles were a money machine this year at 10-3 ATS. As expected they split their four non-conference games, losing to both Power-five conference teams, then crushed North Texas and out-gained Marshall in a loss. They then reeled off six straight wins, including going on the road and crushing Louisiana Tech for the CUSA West Division title, before losing to Western Kentucky in the CUSA Championship game. They are No. 15 in the FBS averaging 100 yards per game more than their foes allow & quarterback Nick Mullens has had nine game with 300+ passing yards, including one over 400.

Southern Miss enters this game having out-gained their opponents by 156 yards per game, while Washington has out-gained their opponents by just 38 yards per game. However, the Golden Eagles have played one of the easiest schedules in the country, while the Huskies play in the deepest conference in the nation. Southern Miss has not played a team that has a defense as tough as Washington and they played just five bowl teams, while the Huskies played 10. Against those five bowl teams, the Golden Eagles only won once and their losses were by an average of 16 points per game. Washington maybe a young team, but they have gotten better as the season has progressed.

Sun Bowl – Miami Hurricanes (+2.5) versus Washington State Cougars

Posted: December 30, 2015 in College football, Football
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header_2015This is the first all-time meeting between these schools. Both teams have played in this bowl once with Miami losing to Notre Dame, 33-17 (-2.5) in 2010 and Washington State beating Purdue 33-27 (-6.5) in 2001. Miami is in the post season for the third straight season and 16th time in the last 20 years. They are just 1-6 SU/ATS their last seven. They hired former Georgia head coach Mark Richt after the regular season, but interim head coach Larry Scott will be coaching his first bowl game here. Washington State is bowling for the sixth time in the last 20 years, but just the second in the last 12 years. They’re 2-3 SU/ATS and lost 48-45 (-5.5) to Colorado State in the 2013 New Mexico Bowl. Prior to Washington State, head coach Mike Leach was 5-4 SU/3-6 ATS in bowls while at Texas Tech.

Washington State far exceeded expectations this year. After finishing last year 3-9 they did return 14 starters, but had to break in a new quarterback. Sophomore Luke Falk proved to be the perfect fit for Leach’s Air Raid offense as he earned first team Pac-12, finishing with five games over 400 yards passing and two over 500! It’s easy to forget that they lost its opener to an FCS team, but their only other losses were at Cal and versus Pac-12 champion Stanford in games that went down to the wire. The Cougars also lost in the Apple Cup as Falk was out after suffering a concussion, but he will return here.

Miami had high expectations in head coach Al Golden’s fifth season despite just 11 returning starters. They got off to a 3-0 start, but were then upset at Cincinnati and nearly pulled the upset in their close loss at Florida State. After beating Virginia Tech, they were embarrassed at home to eventual ACC champ Clemson and Golden was fired. Tight end coach Larry Scott took over and the Hurricanes went 4-1 to close the season, with their lone loss coming to ACC Coastal Champ North Carolina on the road, 59-21, but they were only out-gained by 62 yards. They only allowed one 300 yard passer all season and have a solid pass defense overall.

While both teams have identical records, Miami enters having won four of five. The Hurricanes appear to match up well in this game as they have the talent edge and should be able to control Washington State’s passing attack. Miami should also be able to get pressure on Falk as they have a clear edge on the line of scrimmage. The Cougars leading receiver Gabe Marks was hurt in the Apple Cup and will be limited in this game. Neither will have much of a crowd edge, but Miami will look to impress their new head coach.

GoDaddy Bowl – Bowling Green Falcons (-7) versus Georgia Southern Eagles

Posted: December 23, 2015 in College football, Football
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This is the first all-time meeting between these schools. This bowl was formerly known as the GMAC Bowl from 2001-2010. This is Bowling Green’s first GoDaddy Bowl, but they did go to two GMAC bowls, winning in 2004 and losing in 2007. They are 1-2 SU/ATS all-time in bowls. Head coach Dino Babers accepted the Syracuse job and defensive coordinator Brian Ward will be the interim head coach here. Georgia Southern made a bowl in just their second season in the FBS. Head coach Willie Fritz accepted the Tulane job and running backs coach Dell McGee will be the interim head coach here.

Georgia Southern was undefeated in the Sun Belt Conference in 2014, but were ineligible for a bowl. After losing as expected at West Virginia to open the season, they reeled off five straight wins and then lost their first ever SBC game at Appalachian State. They then won three of four, with their lone loss on the road at Georgia in overtime. They split their last two as they were shocked by Georgia State as a three touchdown favorite. The Eagles run the triple option (356 rushing yards per game, 6.5 avg) and their defense held four foes to season lows in yards as they finished No. 11 in the FBS, allowing 90 yards per game less then their foes averaged on the season.

Bowling Green returned 15 starters, including 10 on offense and didn’t disappoint. Despite a brutal out of conference schedule that had them on the road in three of the four games, they went 2-2. Bowling Green then won their first six conference games, but then lost to Toledo for the sixth straight year. They rebounded to win their finale and then pounded Northern Illinois, 34-14 to win the Mid American Conference Championship. Their strength is on offense, as they averaged 561 yards per game and are No. 3 in the FBS, averaging 169 yards per game more then their foes allowed on average in the season. Quarterback Matt Johnson had six games with 400 or more yards passing, but has failed to throw for more than 274 in the last four. They haven’t seen the option and are just average in defending the run.

While Georgia Southern has a unique offense, they were held under 280 total yards in four games. They averaged 507 yards per game in their eight wins, but just 239 yards per game in their four losses. Against five bowl teams, the Eagles were just 1-4 as they were out-gained by 131 yards per game, but they did beat fellow MAC team Western Michigan, 43-17. Georgia Southern is much closer to Ladd Peebles Stadium so they should have the crowd edge. Bowling Green was plus 73 yards per game against bowl teams. Usually when a spread passing attack offense and a triple option offense meet, there are a lot of points scored and this game should be no different.

Boca Raton Bowl – Temple Owls (-2.5) versus Toledo Rockets

Posted: December 22, 2015 in Uncategorized
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These schools have met 10 times and Toledo leads 7-3 in the series. They last met in 2011, a 36-13 (+8) Toledo win. This is the second Boca Raton Bowl. Temple is bowling for the first time in four years and just the third time since 1979 (head coach Matt Rhule’s first). In their two most recent bowls, they’re 1-1 SU/ATS. This is Toledo’s second straight bowl (nine in 20 years). They defeated Arkansas State 63-44 (-3’) in last years GoDaddy bowl. Head Coach Matt Campbell took the Iowa State job, so this is offensive coordinator Jason Candle’s first ever gm as a head coach.

Toledo entered the season a legit contender to win the MAC as they returned 13 starters including Alabama transfer quarterback Phillip Ely. After their first game was cancelled due to weather, they pulled off the shocking upset at Arkansas as a 21.5 point ‘dog en route to seven straight wins. Northern Illinois remained a thorn in their side (sixth straight loss to NIU), but they rebounded with back-to-back wins including on the road at eventual MAC champ Bowling Green (+7) and were in control of their own destiny, but lost their finale at home to Western Michigan. Toledo averages 463 yards per game, including 213 (5.1) rushing yards per game. Ely threw for 300 or more yards four times and the rushing attack is led by Kareem Hunt, who missed four games (suspended, hamstring).

Temple was an experienced team entering the season as they had 19 returning starters. They also had over 20 seniors in the two deep and it showed as they opened the season with a statement win over Penn State and then went on the road to defeat Cincinnati and after starting the season 7-0, were ranked No. 21. They then lost a close game against Notre Dame and after blowing out Southern Methodist, were then blown out at South Florida. They kept their promising season alive by winning their final two regular season games, but then lost the AAC Championship game versus Houston. Their strength is the defense and they held five of their foes to season lows in yards and finished No. 14 in the FBS, allowing 80 yards per game less then their foes average.

Neither team is happy with the way their regular season ended as Temple just missed a New Years Six bowl, while Toledo missed out on their conference championship game. Toledo has the edge on offense, but Temple edges on offense and special teams. It’s hard to say who will have the crowd edge as both schools are about 1,000 miles away from FAU Stadium. Toledo was plus 45.5 yards per game against bowl teams, while Temple was minus 2 yards per game. The Owls defense was also much better at home then away. The key match-up could be along the sidelines, where Temple will have their normal head coach, while the Rockets have a brand new one.

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