Archive for the ‘College football’ Category

Five things to know that make the Camellia Bowl more interesting

Posted: December 17, 2016 in College football
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I know, I know.  “There’s too many bowls.” I hear this all the time. I, for one like the bowl games and will share some reasons to maybe change your mind enough to tune into the Camellia Bowl (Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Toledo Rockets).

  1. Toledo quarterback Logan Woodside led the FBS with 43 touchdown passes! How will he fare when he looks across the field at Phil Steele’s #10 ranked pass efficiency defense that only allowed 10 td’s while intercepting 19 passes?
  2. Toledo set a school record averaging 530 yards per game. While Appalachian State allowed non conference opponents to gain 420 yards per game, they did hold Tennessee to just 4.4 yards per play.
  3. Appalachian State runs the option offense that averages 247 (5.6) rush yards per game and Toledo allows 166 (4.7) rush yards per game.
  4. Toledo tight end Michael Roberts was named 1st Team Mid American Conference and the best tight end the Mountaineers faced this year was 3rd Team Sun Belt Buck Cowan from Idaho and he finished with 10 receptions for 118 yards and a touchdown.
  5. This is likely going to end up as a high scoring affair so if points is your thing, you will be entertained.

Five things to know that make the Cure Bowl more interesting

Posted: December 17, 2016 in College football
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I know, I know.  “There’s too many bowls.” I hear this all the time. I, for one like the bowl games and will share some reasons to maybe change your mind enough to tune into the Cure Bowl (Arkansas State Red Wolves vs UCF Knights).

  1. This game is being played in UCF’s former home venue
  2. UCF is the lone team to go from winless to a bowl the next year since 2002 (and this is the 2nd time they’ve done so in that span)!
  3. Arkansas State has the Sun Belt Player of the Year in defensive end Ja’Von Rolland-Jones (conferences career leader in sacks).
  4. A big special teams play is bound to happen as UCF has Phil Steele’s #23 ranked unit, while Arkansas State rates just #70.
  5. If you prefer defense, points in this game will likely be scarce.

Five things to know that make the Las Vegas Bowl more interesting

Posted: December 17, 2016 in College football
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I know, I know.  “There’s too many bowls.” I hear this all the time. I, for one like the bowl games and will share some reasons to maybe change your mind enough to tune into the Las Vegas Bowl (Houston Cougars vs San Diego State Aztecs).

  1. The all time FBS rushing record is in jeopardy! San Diego State’s Donnel “DJ” Pumphrey is just 108 yards away from breaking the current record of 6,397 held by Wisconsin’s Ron Dayne.
  2. Houston head coach Tom Herman has moved on to Texas and this will be Major Applewhite’s 1st game as a head coach.
  3. Houston is +84 yards per game against bowl teams, while San Diego State is -16 yards per game against bowl teams.
  4. Houston quarterback Greg Ward was a Heisman Trophy candidate entering the season and while he’s been banged up, he still completed 68% of his passes with a 22-9 ratio. San Diego State counters with a pass defense that led the nation with 20 interceptions.
  5. San Diego State features the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year (Pumphrey, also won last year), Defensive Player of the Year (cornerback Damontae Kazee, also won last year), and Special Teams Player of the Year (Rashaad Penny).

Five things to know that make the New Mexico Bowl more interesting

Posted: December 17, 2016 in College football
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I know, I know.  “There’s too many bowls.” I hear this all the time. I, for one like the bowl games and will share some reasons to maybe change your mind enough to tune into the New Mexico Bowl (UTSA Roadrunners vs New Mexico Lobos).

  1. Witness history! This is UTSA’s 1st ever bowl game. New Mexico is actually playing in its home venue.
  2. New Mexico has the #1 rushing offense in the FBS averaging 361 (6.8) yards per game. UTSA counters with a rush defense that has improved as the season progressed. In their last 7 games, the Roadrunners held their opponents to an average of 48 rush yards per game and 1.1 yards per carry less than their foes season average.
  3. UTSA quarterbacks have a 24-7 touchdown to interception ratio and New Mexico counters with Phil Steele’s #117 ranked pass efficiency defense (allowed 22-7 ratio).
  4. New Mexico has covered 5 of its last 7 games against the Vegas line, while UTSA is 4-2-1 against the spread as an underdog. (New Mexico is favored by 9.5 points).
  5. If you like high scoring affairs, tune in as there figures to a lot of points scored in this one.

Fiesta Bowl – Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5) versus Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Posted: January 18, 2016 in Buckeyes, College football, Football
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This is just the sixth all-time meeting between these two blue bloods (Ohio State leads 3-2 SU) with the last meeting in the 2005 Fiesta bowl, a 34-20 Buckeye (-4.5) win. Notre Dame has been in the post season every year under head coach Brian Kelly, going 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS, including beating LSU, 31-28 (+8) in last years Music City Bowl. Kelly was 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS in bowls as the head coach at Cincinnati. Ohio State is 2-1 SU/ATS in bowls under head coach Urban Meyer, winning both last year to become the National Champions. Prior to Ohio State, Meyer was 7-1 SU/ATS in bowls while the head coach at Florida and Utah and he was also the wide receivers coach at Notre Dame from 1996-2000.

Ohio State was expected to repeat as National Champions after returning 14 starters, including three All-American’s! The quarterback play was inconsistent as Cardale Jones and JT Barrett alternated the first seven games and the offense unexpectedly struggled (lost offensive coordinator Tom Herman to Houston). Barrett was named the starter against Rutgers, then was suspended versus Minnesota. He returned to start the last three, but struggled in a downpour in the home loss to Michigan State and workhorse running back Ezekial Elliot was underutilized. Elliot was then given a season high 30 carries in a rout over arch-rival Michigan. The Buckeye’s averaged 429 yards per game, and are No. 7 on defense in the FBS, holding their opponents to 97 yards per game less then they average.

Notre Dame returned 17 starters. Malik Zaire won the starting quarterback job, but suffered a broken ankle and was lost for the year after two games. Redshirt freshman DeShone Kizer has done a solid job in relief. Injuries were the norm for the Fighting Irish and Kelly said that nine starters were lost for the year. Notre Dame lost by two at Clemson despite a 141 yard edge as a defensive holding/pass interference was not called on their two point conversion attempt that would’ve tied the game. They then won six straight and in their regular season finale met Stanford. They lost in Palo Alto by two, allowing the game-winning 45 yard field goal with no time left after taking the lead 30 seconds earlier. They are No. 12 in the FBS, averaging 115 yards per game more then their opponents allow on average.

Notre Dame is just a couple of plays from being undefeated and are 5-1 ATS against bowl teams, outgaining them by 78 yards per game, while Ohio State is 3-5 ATS, but outgained their bowl opponents by 98 yards per game. Urban Meyer is arguably the best big game coach in the nation as he is 9-2 in bowls with three National Titles. The Buckeyes could be in a letdown spot as they expected to be in the playoffs, while Notre Dame is 3-0 as a ‘dog this year. Ohio State is the more talented team and this should be a high scoring game.

Citrus Bowl – Michigan Wolverines (-4) versus Florida Gators

Posted: January 18, 2016 in College football, Football
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These schools have met twice with Michigan winning the 2002 Outback bowl, 38-30 (-1) and the 2007 Capital One bowl, 41-35 (+11). The Wolverines are back in the post season for the fifth time in the last six years after missing out last year. Their last Citrus bowl appearance was a 45-17 (+3) loss to Tennessee in 2001. Head coach Jim Harbaugh was 1-1 SU/ATS in bowl games while the head coach at Stanford. Florida is bowling for the 24th time in the last 25 years. The Gators beat East Carolina, 28-20 (-7) in Last years Birmingham Bowl, despite being outgained 536-339. Head coach Jim McElwain was 1-0 SU/0-1 ATS as the head coach at Colorado State.

Florida returned just 11 starters and brought in a new head coach with new schemes. Offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier had the same role with Michigan last year. The Gators began the season 6-0 with redshirt freshman quarterback Will Grier and a defense that McElwain claimed reminded him of Alabama when he was there from 2008-2011. Grier was then suspended (failed drug test) before the LSU game and Treon Harris took over. They lost to LSU, but won the rest of their regular season SEC games, despite poor quarterback play. Florida needed overtime to defeat a three win Florida Atlantic squad and then were embarrassed by Florida State before getting thumped in the SEC Championship game. The Gators only averaged 231 yards per game in their last three contests, but are No. 6 in the FBS on defense, holding their opponents to 111 yards per game less then their average.

Michigan had a home-run hire in Harbaugh and had 15 returning starters from  a 5-7 team. The players bought into Harbaugh’s intense antics. They lost their opener at Utah, but gained respect with their physical play. At 5-1 they were hosting eventual Big Ten Champion Michigan State and appeared to have the game won, but lost when their punter mishandled a last second snap and they lost a game they never trailed a second of in regulation. They then won four straight, but were embarrassed in “The Game” against arch-rival Ohio State. They are No. 4 in the FBS, holding their opponents to 116 yards per game less then their average.

Gainesville is only 112 miles away from this venue, but the Michigan faithful will travel well. Both teams feature average offenses, but top ten defenses. The Wolverines are better on special teams and Harbaugh has more experience as a head coach in big games. Since the loss of Senior nose tackle Ryan Glasgow, Michigan has given up over 300 yards rushing against Indiana and Ohio State. This should be a low scoring game.

Orange Bowl – Clemson Tigers (+3.5) versus Oklahoma Sooners

Posted: January 18, 2016 in College football, Football
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This is the playoff semifinal. These schools are meeting for the fifth time, the third time in a bowl. Clemson embarrassed Oklahoma in last years Russell Athletic Bowl, 40-6 (+5). This is the eight straight bowl game for the Tigers under head coach Dabo Swinney and they’re 4-3 SU/ATS. Oklahoma has been bowling all 17 years under head coach Bob Stoops and are 8-8 SU/6-10 ATS in those.

When the Sooners enter the season under the radar and not ranked in the pre-season Top ten, watch out. The last two times that happened, they won a National Championship in one and finished No. 6 in the other. They returned thirteen starters and brought in new offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley to install the “Air Raid” offense and Texas Tech transfer quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrived. They started the season 4-0, but then were stunned in the “Red River Rivalry” as a 16.5 point favorite, losing 24-17 . Oklahoma then won seven straight, including back-to-back-to-back wins over the Big 12 elite of Baylor, TCU, and Oregon State, and arguably are playing the best football of any team. Oklahoma is No. 15 in the FBS, averaging 111 yards per game more then their foes allow on a average and are #5 in the FBS, allowing 115 yards per game less then their foes average.

Clemson returned just three starters on defense and quarterback Deshaun Watson was coming off an ACL injury. They survived a close home game against Notre Dame, winning by two despite being minus 141 yards and then weren’t challenged again until their home game against Florida State, which they passed with flying colors. After that win, the Tigers no longer needed style points, so they won the rest of their regular season games without having to dominate. Clemson beat North Carolina in the ACC Title game, getting some help from the referees when a phantom offside penalty was called on the onside kick. They are No. 4 in the FBS, averaging 160 yards per game more then their foes allow on average and No. 9 in the FBS, holding their opponents to 101 yards per game less then they average. Watson finished third in the Heisman Trophy balloting and is a true dual threat option.

Oklahoma’s offense has been on fire since the loss to Texas, as they are averaging 300 rushing yards per game and 293 passing yards per game! The Sooners are a bit of an unknown still, as they beat their strongest conference opponents all without their starting quarterbacks. Clemson should feel disrespected as a ‘dog in this game, despite being ranked No. 1, but Oklahoma typically does well in revenge games under Stoops.

Cotton Bowl – Alabama Crimson Tide (-9.5) versus Michigan State Spartans

Posted: January 13, 2016 in College football, Football
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This is the Playoff semi-final. Alabama won the only prior meeting, 49-7 (-8) in the 2010 Capital One Bowl. The Crimson Tide were in a similar spot last year as they were nearly a double-digit favorite against Ohio State and lost, 42-35 (-8). Head coach Nick Saban is is 5-3 SU/ATS in bowls at Alabama and was 4-5 SU/ATS in bowls while the head coach at LSU and Michigan State (first meeting against Sparty). Michigan State is bowling for the ninth straight season. They beat Baylor, 42-41 (+2.5) in last year’s Cotton Bowl and head coach Mark Dantonio is 6-4 SU/ATS in bowls.

Michigan State entered this year a legit National Title contender and haven’t disappointed. They got past Oregon, despite being outgained by 104 yards and got a miraculous win at Michigan on a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. They lost at Nebraska on a questionable non-penalized touchdown pass (receiver came back from being out of bounds) with under thirty seconds left. Quarterback Conner Cook was injured in the win over Maryland and missed the Ohio State game. Despite alternating two backups at quarterback, the Spartans beat the defending champs, holding them to just five first downs and 132 total yards (game-winning field goal with no time left). They beat Michigan and Ohio State without leading a single second in regulation. Michigan State beat Iowa in the Big Ten Championship game as they went 82 yards in 22 plays, scoring the game-winning touchdown with 27 seconds left. They are No. 13 in the FBS, allowing 88 yards per game less then their opponents average and their strength is along both lines of scrimmage.

Alabama lost to Ole Miss via a deflected pass, but then steamrolled the rest of their foes in a rare down year for the SEC. Running back Derrick Henry broke Herchel Walkers conference record for most rushing yards in a season and won the Heisman Trophy. They are No. 1 in the FBS, allowing 155 yards per game less then their foes average and held eight of their opponents to either their fewest or second fewest yards.

While Michigan State has one of the top offensive/defensive line combinations in the country, Alabama’s is even better. The Crimson Tide have better talent at every position with the exception of quarterback. Dantonio is 12-1 ATS as a ‘dog, winning nine outright! The Spartans also play their best in big games. Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa combined to average 219 (5.2) rushing yards per game, but Michigan State held them to 81 (2.5), so they matchup well against Henry.

Holiday Bowl – USC Trojans (-3) versus Wisconsin Badgers

Posted: January 11, 2016 in College football, Football
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These schools have met six times previously, with USC winning all of them, but the last meeting was in 1966! This is the fourth straight bowl game for the Trojans and they played in this exact bowl last year, beating Nebraska 45-42 (-7). In their previous three non New Years Day bowl games, USC is 2-1 SU/ATS. Head coach Clay Helton is 1-0 SU/ATS in bowls (interim in 2013). Wisconsin is bowling for the 14th straight season. They beat Auburn 34-31 (+6.5) in last years Outback Bowl, and are 4-2 SU/3-3 ATS in non New Years Day bowl games since 1996. Head coach Paul Chryst was 1-1 SU/ATS in bowls while the head coach at Pittsburgh. 

Despite just returning 11 starters with a new head coach, Wisconsin was expected to win the Big Ten West division. Corey Clement was expected to replace Melvin Gordon, but he’s been banged up. They went 3-1 in the non-conference portion of their schedule with an expected loss to Alabama, then lost their first conference game to eventual West division champion Iowa. The Badgers then won five straight, but were upset at home against Northwestern as a double-digit favorite. They finished the season with a win over Minnesota. Wisconsin held six of their opponents to either their lowest or second lowest yards total and are No. 6 in the FBS allowing 114 yards per game less then their foes average. They have a top notch defense, being superior both against the pass and the run.

USC looked like a National Title contender when the season began as their sanctions ended. At 2-0, they hosted eventual Pac-12 champion Stanford as nearly a double-digit favorite, but lost by 10. After a loss to Washington, head coach Steve Sarkisian was let go for personal reasons and defensive coordinator Clay Helton took over. They then lost to Notre Dame, but after beating Utah, controlled their fate in the South division. The Trojans went 4-1 down the stretch, losing only to Oregon as a ‘dog. USC again lost to Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship game. Helton was hired as the permanent head coach, but has let go of five defensive assistants since the end of the regular season.

Wisconsin enters this game plus 110 yards per game and outgained Iowa by 99 yards in their home loss. USC played against 11 bowl teams and were plus 48 yards per game, while the Badgers played just five bowl teams. While Wisconsin does have the defensive edge, USC has an abundance of skill players on offense and it will be interesting to see what side comes out on top.

Belk Bowl – Mississippi State Bulldogs (-5) versus North Carolina State Wolf Pack

Posted: January 11, 2016 in College football, Football
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This is the sixth all-time meeting with the last two being in the 1963 Liberty Bowl (MSU won 16-12) and the 1994 Peach Bowl (NCST won 28-24, +6). This bowl has been called the Queen City, Continental Tire, and the Car Care Bowl. North Carolina State played here twice, beating South Florida, 14-0 (-3.5) in 2005 and Louisville, 31-24 (-2) in 2011. They won the St Petersburg Bowl, 34-27 (+2.5) versus Central Florida last year, making head coach Dave Doeren 2-0 SU/ATS in bowls. This is Mississippi State’s sixth straight bowl under head coach Dan Mullen (3-2 SU/2-3 ATS) and lost to Georgia Tech in last years Orange Bowl, 49-34 (-6).

It was going to be tough to match last year’s 10 win season as Mississippi State returned just seven starters, but that did include dynamic quarterback Dak Prescott. They won their opener, then lost by just two against LSU. The Bulldogs then won six of seven with their lone loss at Texas A&M and were ranked a season high No. 20 into their showdown with Alabama. They had a 20-13 first down edge, but lost by 25, then upset Arkansas, but then lost the Egg bowl. Prescott threw for 300+ yards six times, including 508 against Arkansas and leads the team in rushing. They are No. 21 in the FBS, averaging 75 yards per game more then their opponents allow on average. Their defense did lose lockdown cornerback Will Redmond and another defensive back starter late in the year.

Wolf Pack head coach Doeren had his best team since taking over in Raleigh as North Carolina State returned 15 starters from an 8-5 team, including quarterback Jacoby Brissett. They went 4-0 in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but struggled in conference play as not once did they string together back-to-back ACC wins. With the exception of their loss against Louisville, they won every game they were favored in and lost every game they were a ‘dog in. Running back Matthew Dayes was having a great season and was off a 200 yard effort when he injured his foot versus Clemson and was lost for the year. North Carolina State has a solid pass defense, but are average against the run.

Against eight bowl teams, Mississippi State was plus 1.6 yards per game, but North Carolina State was minus 124.2 yards per game against five bowl teams. Look for Prescott to rebound from his poor effort in his final home game as he is too good of a quarterback to struggle at the end of his career. The Wolf Pack will be more excited to play in this bowl game as the Bulldogs had higher aspirations, but due to their lackluster effort in last years bowl and coming off a loss against their rival, Mississippi State will have plenty of motivation.

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